It is one of the most common questions in project planning, and often one of the hardest to answer with confidence. Many contingency

estimates still rely heavily on hunches or “the way things are done here” rather than a risk-based, statistically valid approach. 

At Projectick, we have been developing an in-house Monte Carlo simulation to help clients simulate cost variance across thousands of

simulations for project risk scenarios and better assess appropriate contingency values. The simulator takes the uncertainties inherent in risks

and turns them into a range of possible outcomes by analyzing thousands of possible scenarios. The simulator automatically draws out key

information, and generates graphs, providing the foundational decision-making data for project management. One of the most rewarding parts

of the process has been finding ways to make this type of analysis more practical and accessible within a familiar Excel environment, without

relying on expensive external software. How does your team currently approach contingency assessment?